So Much Labor, So Little Skills

It's a common refrain from those locating backroom offices in the Philippines. Lots of college graduates, not enough qualified. WNS , whose clients include T-Mobile, Intercontinental Hotels and SITA, complains that its hit rate in hiring is 10%.
That "skills gap" will disappear. The BPO industry is growing at such a rate and to such a critical mass that its gravitational pull will bring more and more of Philippines into its orbit; schools and society will respond. But maybe not as fast as employers wish.

Keshav R. Murugesh, group chief executive officer of BPO firm WNS Philippines Inc., told reporters in a briefing on Friday the employability rate in the country needs to be improved.

"In our case, we get only one out of 10 applicants," he said.

Mr. Murugesh said his office has been closely coordinating with the Business Processing Association of the Philippines (BPAP) to conduct training and special courses.

"However, the challenge is to produce skilled graduates who are employable once they apply for the job. It should be that when there are 10 applicants, all 10 get accepted," he said.

BPO Slowdown

The red-hot BPO industry is declaring that 2009 will be a slower growth year after the torrid expansion in the past few years. The blame is put not just on the global recession but the rising protectionist sentiment in the U.S., the Philippines' largest market.

Half-full-glass analysts will tell you this is the welcome pause that refreshes. No industry can sustain big jumps in production without bumping up against constraints. And for the longest time, the constraint has not been external demand. The problem has been mostly internal: the country's ability to provide labor. Or rather, we should say labor is not a problem, as any recruiting agency will tell you; it's the limited supply of labor with the right skills that has limited growth.

Now that external demand is slackening, the industry can turn more attention to those internal problems, those what managers will call "variables we can control." There's nothing we can do to influence the U.S. recession; there's everything we can do to make sure Philippine schools are turning out qualified graduates, training seminars are truly training employees, and programs to upgrade technical skills are implemented.

CICT Commissioner Monchito Ibrahim said that despite the setback, the industry is still expecting 30-percent growth this year to some $8 billion, and plans to increase the number of new jobs by a fifth or 75,000 jobs. He said the BPO industry ended 2008 with 372,000 jobs.

The revenue projection was taken from the Business Processing Association of the Philippines (Bpap) Roadmap 2010, a three-year plan that aims to double the country’s worldwide market share and achieve $13 billion in revenues, as well as provide direct employment to 1 million people.

Ibrahim said the slowdown was due to a number of factors, including the global financial crisis which has hurt the US, the country’s only major partner in the BPO industry. The lack of workers with necessary skills was also a key constraint.

People Say The Price Isn't Right

On the same day that it rejected a cash bid from IPVG Corp. to buy the company for $15 a share, PeopleSupport came out with a bullish forecast, saying it would generate more revenue and earnings than analysts had expected.

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- PeopleSupport Inc., an offshore business process outsourcing provider, said Wednesday it expects its fiscal 2008 profit to beat Wall Street's expectations. The company forecast income between 65 cents and 81 cents per share in 2008, with revenue of $180 million to $190 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial predict earnings of 57 cents per share on revenue of $170.8 million.

Not all the pieces of the unfolding drama are visible on the board. The unsolicited IPVG bid, in the parlance of bankers, put PSPT "into play." Now the usual drill in this scenario is to reject the first buyout offer and holdout for more; from the shadows other bidders will emerge. You can be sure that teams from other BPOs are now crunching numbers with their favorite investment bankers to see if they should battle for PSPT and top IPVG's $15/share offer.

In the PSPT's press release, PSPT quoted its independent director Frank Perna as saying, “We have carefully reviewed the proposal and believe it to be inadequate and not to merit further attention. We have also reviewed the strategic plans in place for the Company and believe that the implementation of those plans is the best way to enhance shareholder value at this time."

The translation: we have a price at which we will sell.

eTelecare Loses It

How would you like to be the relationship manager at eTelecare Global Solutions who just lost a major account? The Manila-based company, which debuted on the Nasdaq just a few months ago, saw its shares drop below its IPO price after it disclosed that the "significant client" cancelled a program that brought in $15.6 million in revenue during the first half of 2007.

Customer churn is part and parcel of the BPO business, but when you are a newbie company touting the superiority of your outsourcing practices, losing a major customer deals a body blow to your reputation.

eTelecare expects 2007 annual revenues to be in the range of $240 million to $250 million, with net income of $19.2 million to $21.5 million, or $0.63 to $0.71 per diluted ADS. This compares to the previous guidance for 2007 annual revenues in the range of $250 million to $260 million, with net income of $22 million to $25 million, or $0.72 to $0.82 per diluted ADS.

Which customer did the BPO lose? From ETEL's prospectus:

As of December 31, 2006, we had 21 active clients for which we had performed 51 different programs since January 2006. We have a particular expertise in communications, technology and financial services. We also serve clients in the travel and hospitality, media and retail industries. Our largest clients in terms of revenue are American Express, AOL, Cingular, Dell, Intuit, Sprint and Vonage.

ePLDT's SPI Making Deals in India

Here's another little tidbit on the globalization front. SPI, a Philippine BPO owned by the nation's largest telecommunications company, is looking to buy Indian companies as it expands its presence in the subcontinent. In the meantime, Indian companies are scouting in SPI's backyard for suitable acquisition candidates in the race to bulk up and develop a full service line. Now which of the many BPO companies around today will become the household name in 2020?

Global healthcare, legal and publishing business process outsourcing company SPi is looking out for suitable acquisitions in India. Ernest L Cu, president and chief executive officer of the Philippines-headquartered Spi, said the company has allocated $50 million for mergers and acquisitions. The company is in talks with investment bankers and is considering several proposals, Cu said while addressing the media here on Wednesday. According to Cu, SPi plans to move its medical billing work to India from the US. He said the setting up of new delivery centre in Chennai and the cost differential between the US and India has made the company favour shifting of medical billing business to Chennai in eight months. The business has the potential to create 150 new jobs. SPi Technologies inaugurated its new 17,000 sq ft facility in the city on Wednesday. The 1,100-seat facility will house the company's publishing and healthcare business operations. The new centre will be the company's fourth in the country after Pondicherry, Coimbatore and New Delhi. Cu said the Indian company would increase its headcount by 700 by the end of this year. In 2003, SPi through its wholly owned Indian subsidiary SPi Technologies Private Ltd
acquired the Pondicherry-based Kolam Information Services Private Ltd, a book
publishing BPO. Two years later, it acquired the medical transcriptions business
of KG Information Services and Technologies Private Ltd in Coimbatore.

Bagging The Citi

Would you buy a business from a bank? Would you buy a business that is solely dependent on that bank? Citibank is close to a sale of its captive BPO, according to Indian press reports. The information asymmetry seems to favor Citibank, since who better knows the bank's prospects -- and the outsourcing potential going forward -- than itself.


If you're a buyer, it makes sense to pay the reported $1.2 billion price if you're confident you can cut costs in the unit faster or deeper than Citi thinks, and if you can use the Citibank BPO as a platform to acquire other bank customers. What better calling card than to say to future customers, "The largest bank in the world outsources to me."

Citigroup's BPO arm, Citigroup Global Services, is likely to find a new owner in a week. Surprisingly, big names like IBM, Infosys, TCS and Blackstone, which were in the race for the BPO firm, have fallen by the wayside, citing expensive valuations. The fight is now between half a dozen suitors comprising Genpact, First Source, WNS, 3i and a couple of private equity investors. Citigroup's BPO arm was recently put on the block and is likely to be valued around $1.2 billion. "The multiples are going to be pretty high here.

That means the buyers require to cough up anything up to $1.2 billion. Third party BPO firms in India are yet to have such deep pockets. Again, sinking large chunks of money upfront on a non-core cause may not be the right option for domestic IT services providers. That clearly leaves the game with big boys like IBM and monied PE guys who are willing to wait for ROI and capable of taking risk,'' says Pari Natarajan, CEO, Zinnov, a Silicon Valley-based offshore research and consulting firm.
For Genpact, the former captive unit of GE, this acquisition would reaffirm its leadership position in the country, while for WNS, acquiring Citigroup Global would give it a presence in the financial services sector. WNS, a legal service and financial services company, has made a few unsuccessful attempts to add financial services to its portfolio and is looking to make a splash by bagging this deal.First Source, on the other hand, is already a specialised player in the banking and insurance sector and the addition of the Citigroup's captive unit will bring them practices that banks usually don't outsource to third party players.

Half a Million Jobs

The Contact Center Association of the Philippines (CCAP) has a target: 500,000 gainfully employed in the industry by 2010. If this target is achieved, what will it do to the ecosystem that serves this industry? More Manila bars, open at noon, with dark curtains to shield the sun, so that graveyard shift workers can still feel like they're going out at night? More 7-11 and Ministop convenience stores with dine in facilities? More "We will give your accent an American twang" ESL (English as second language) centers? More healthcare workers trained to diagnose and treat "graveyard disease"?

Raffy David, CCAP director, said in a phone interview that industry estimates peg the total current industry workforce at around 200,000 workers.

Since call centers began setting up around the early part of the decade, the industry has been doubling its workforce annually but has tapered off in recent years due to concerns in the supply of skilled labor.

This is one of the perennial issues CCAP wants to address in an industry roadmap currently in development. CCAP plans to unveil this roadmap, basically detailing a strategy for the industry until 2010, in its annual conference this July.

"Since 2001, we've been trying to address perennial issues like HR, including poaching of agents, and promoting the Philippines abroad," said David, who also serves as CCAP director for membership.

Blackstone Flag to Fly in Philippines

A Reuters news story in the NYTimes website says Blackstone Group has bought Intelenet Global Services of India, teaming up with its management in an 80-20 venture. The buyout price was in the region of $200 million.

This marks the first foray in the industry for Blackstone. And such big boys with deep pockets don't usually stop at one deal. Rollup strategy, anyone?

The British bank Barclays and an Indian mortgage firm, the Housing Development Finance Corporation, said separately that they each were selling their holdings in Intelenet, without disclosing the price.

Intelenet plans to expand its operations in Britain and begin services out of the Philippines and Mauritius, said its chief executive, Susir Kumar.

RPO

We now live in the age of the derivative acronym. First there was BPO (business process outsourcing). Then there came KPO (knowledge process outsourcing). The new acronym popping up is RPO (recruitment process outsourcing), in which the person who interviews you is not even employed by the corporation that is hiring you.

Corporations have always used head hunters to find executive-level employees.
But now the search for lower-level workers has been outsourced as well. Companies are desperate for talent, and they can't always find it on their own. Staffing firms like Spherion (NYSE: SFN) and Korn/Ferry, along with consultancies like IBM and Accenture (NYSE: ACN), have all moved into the recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) business. They find candidates, root through résumés, do background checks and even conduct initial job interviews for jobs paying anywhere from $30,000 to $200,000 a year. And the candidates often don't even know that an outsourcer, rather than the company itself, is running the show. . . .According to research firm Gartner, the RPO business was worth $1.2 billion in 2006 and is growing about 8.6% a year. Some outsourcers, however, are seeing much faster growth. At staffing firm Spherion, the RPO business has tripled in the last 18 months and now tops $50 million annually. At 4-year-old firm The Right Thing business has been tripling every year. And the deals are getting bigger. Three years ago, the biggest recruitment process outsourcing contracts were worth $5 million, according to Jason Corsello, an analyst with the Yankee Group. Now, deals are often worth more than $30 million a year. That means someone at a call center in Manila might be interviewing you for your next job. Even if the recruiter is based in the U.S. or Canada, the entire process, until the final interview, may now be conducted over the phone and online. "Face time is not part of this business," says Lowell Williams, head of the human resources practice at EquaTerra, a firm that connects corporations with outsourcing partners. "You could definitely have a job interview with someone in India or China. It's going on all the time."

If Citi Can Do It, So Can HSBC

HSBC , according to this press report, will add a few thousand more jobs in the Philippines to serve its US and UK customers. As more and more financial bigwigs such as AIG and Citibank cluster their in-house operations in the Philippines, you can say the Philippines is becoming the center of backroom operations -- the contradictory terms intended.

...the visiting bank official said HSBC is committed to the country in terms of expanding its banking services and its support group by increasing its Business
Processing Outsourcing (BPO) operations.
A third BPO is scheduled to open this coming year, which will increase the total employees of the bank on a consolidated basis to roughly 11,000, disclosed HSBC Philippines Chief Executive Officer Mark Watkinson. Specifically, its banking operations employs a total of 2,500 and 5,500 for BPOs.
At present, the bank has a couple of BPOs, one in Ayala-Alabang and another in PBCom Tower at the heart of the Central Makati Business District. These two service HSBC’s clients in the United States and United Kingdom.
It was explained the Philippines has an edge to service the bank’s US and UK customer base because of the natural talent of locals to speak English as a second language.

The First Gram is Always Free

There's a study out by Compact Management Consulting on how IT and BPO outsourcers deliver cost savings in the first year, and then ratchet up their prices in successive years, making them the costlier option for a company than if it kept the service in-house.

The research, based on an analysis of 240 deals worth more than £20m, found that outsourcing providers were pricing contracts to produce savings of up 18% compared with in-house costs in the first year. But costs then began to escalate, reaching 36% above comparable top quartile internal operations by year three. . . .

Simon Scarrott, head of business development and marketing at Compass, said: “With those figures, it is easy to see why the claim that all outsourcing will save money is a myth. There can be sound strategic reasons for outsourcing but saving money over the long term is not one of them.”

He added: “Outsourcing providers are not that different from an in-house operation. Indeed, they often use the same people as the in-house operation after the deal is signed and outsourcers cannot perform alchemy on a business process and turn an operation into gold.”

Hold on. There are significant savings involved if the business model is to arbitrage the labor costs between an expensive developed country's workers and the cheaper rates available in a developing country. So even if you are still using the same number of IT programmers, clerks, project managers, and customer representatives, there's no doubt the correct outsourcer can do it, cheaper.

Then again, even if you, the chief information officer of a fast-growing company, take the Compass study as gospel truth, you can always choose what Aviva has done -- get an outsourcer to build it for you so you can enjoy the first and second-year savings, and then take over the facility.

The previous month, Aviva transferred 1,600 employees in Bangalore from an outsourcing vendor, 24/7 Customer, to Aviva Global Services. It was the first move of its kind and size in the Indian business processing outsourcing industry, NASSCOM said.

When a vendor creates a call center for a company, runs it for a certain period of time, then hands the operation over to the company, it's called the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model. Typically, a company moving operations to India would build the operation from scratch, or subcontract the operation to an outsourcing vendor, or some combination of the two.

The BOT approach lets a company get going in India faster, Aviva executives said at the ceremony in Mumbai. That helps Aviva, and its Norwich Union insurance subsidiary, adapt to change, [Executive Director Patrick] Snowball said when he accepted the award.

"Our excellent operations in India are critical for us to ensure we maintain a competitive advantage," he said. Aviva has worked with three vendors under the BOT model: EXL, WNS and 24/7 Customer. Over the course of the year, 5,000 employees will be transferred from those vendors to Aviva's own offshore division. The Bangalore facility was just the first to be transferred. Later this year, the company will transfer facilities in Sri Lanka to its control, and in Pune.

Media KPO

Who will be the first in the Philippines to provide outsourcing for America's television industry? According to televisionpoint.com, which tracks the Indian TV industry, Infosys is about to tie up with India's TV18 group to do production work and provide the technology backbone to make it easier to get the digital content we all crave.

The Philippine broadcast industry has the same untapped capabilities -- it's a matter of marrying it with someone who will have enough credibility among TV titans in the U.S. so that those services will be bought.

Sources said the TV18 group was in advanced talks with Infosys BPO and was in the process of finalising the management team that would head this venture. The size of the deal is unavailable, but according to company sources, the deal will involve use of the TV18 brand name and the technology and delivery capabilities of Infosys BPO. This will include rolling out online initiatives and creating technology platforms for high-definition content, digital content and projects that involve editing media-related content.

According to infotech analysts, Infosys BPO is increasingly focusing on getting more knowledge process outsourcing work. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the global media-entertainment industry is estimated at $1.3 trillion (India's GDP in the region of $800 billion) is and is expected to grow to $1,7 trillion by the end of 2009. Infosys is India's second largest infotech software services exporter. TV18, with interests in television and Internet business, runs four television channels including news and entertainment and about a dozen Internet portals spanning technology to travel.

Coming Soon: Bosses from Bangalore

When your backyard is crowded, you need to go someplace else. The success of India in making the awkward term BPO an acronym we now all know has led to homegrown problems. While India sorts it out, in the meantime the greener pasture is the Philippines. Competition for Manila's best workers who can speak straight English with an American accent is intensifying, though the labor surplus in the Philippines is still large, so the runaway bidding for qualified workers isn't there -- yet.

Expect a few announcements from major BPO players within the year, according to India's Financial Express.

The wheel has come a full circle for the Indian business process outsourcing (BPO) sector with runaway wage inflation driving the who’s who in the domestic BPO world to look for low cost destinations such as the Philippines to scale up operations.
Leading the pack is the Infosys BPO, which has already set up shop in the Philippines in association with a local partner. The company is said to be planning to ramp up its presence there through an acquisition or floating a new facility. Other BPO players such as HTMT, IBM Daksh and GenPact are also ramping up their Philippines operations, industry watchers say.
“The challenge is real. For a tier-II player who needs to grow to graduate to tier-I, Philippines are an extremely attractive base to expand into. In 2007, we expect four to five deals involving large Indian players who are moving to that country,” he said, adding, “most of the investments there would be towards setting up support operations for primary facilities based in India.” Many BPOs are eyeing tier-II locations outside Manila and Makati in the Philippines to set up disaster recovery centres for Indian facilities, sources said.

Shortage

Is there a global labor shortage? Some think so. But mention that at any of the recruitment agencies in Manila, where men and women line up in the hopes of landing that overseas job, and you would be laughed at. Perhaps the shortage has to do with qualified skilled workers. You may know how to balance a balance sheet or troubleshoot a troubled network, but if you can't speak English, you can't join the BPO workforce.

At first, the flood of three billion new workers into the global marketplace for labor was a boon to employers across the globe. But cost cutting strategies, like offshoring and outsourcing work to low-wage countries, are running out of gas far sooner than many expected.
The salaries of IT workers from Central Europe to India are rising by double-digits every year. In the past five years, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), SAP (SAP), and even Morgan Stanley (MS) have set up shop in former Communist countries of Eastern Europe. There, a deep pool of highly qualified math and science graduates were supposed to be willing to work for a third of that paid their Western counterparts.
Yet today, IT directors in Poland can cost companies more than $100,000 a year. That approaches Silicon Valley levels. And the number of highly qualified workers is surprisingly low. Multinationals have reacted swiftly, moving operations to ever lower-cost centers. Nokia, which already employs nearly 5,000 people in Hungary, recently announced that it is building a new handset factory in Romania.
This is all rather unexpected. Five years ago companies never thought they would have to worry about human resources. China and India were supposed to have seemingly inexhaustible pools of cheap labor. Yet today, the #1 challenge for multinationals setting up operations abroad is finding and keeping good workers.

The Global Labor Shortage: "The Saudi Arabia of Outsourcing"
India accounts for 65% of all IT work performed offshore. This is largely thanks to its seemingly limitless supply of low-cost engineers and other professionals. Yet, not all is as it seems. India produces 400,000 engineering graduates a year (five times as many as the United States) and a stunning 2.5 million university graduates overall. Yet only about a quarter of India's college graduates are up to snuff. The odds at top Indian companies are even worse. Some 1.3 million people applied to tech-services giant Infosys last year. Fewer than 2% of those were employable.
Graduates of non-elite schools suffer from weak English skills. The quality of faculty and courses is sub-par. In-house training programs for new recruits at top Indian IT services firms such as Infosys (INFY), Genpact, and Tata Consultancy Services fill some of the gaps. But by 2010, India will have a shortfall of 150,000 IT engineers and 350,000 business-process staff.

One Citi's Loss is Another's Gain

Citibank, the financial colossus with 327,000 employees scattered around the world, says it will eliminate 17,000 jobs and move 9,500 to lower-cost countries.

Citibank's Philippine operations (4,100 employees) already does the accounting backroom for the bank titan's Asian operations. What will Manila gain at the expense of New York? Here's how many Citibank employees in the Big Apple will get pink slips, according to the NYTimes:

Some of the biggest body blows in the cost-cutting effort will be felt in New York, where Citigroup is the largest private employer. About 1,600 jobs will be eliminated in the city, where Citigroup has 27,000 employees and its headquarters.

An additional 200 jobs will be lost in New York State, about 75 jobs will be cut in Connecticut, and a handful will be shed in New Jersey. The first pink slips have already been handed out.

Over all, roughly 8 percent of Citigroup’s 327,000 workers worldwide, from entry-level consumer bankers to senior executives in the investment bank, will be affected.

This from Citibank Philippines:

Citigroup Business Process Solutions provides BPO, Call Center and other IT and IT-enabled services to various Citigroup consumer group operations around the region supporting 3 key domains: Citiphone Banking, Credit Operations and Transaction Services.

In addition, three regional operations are located in the Philippines: Citigroup Business Services, the global financial and management reporting center and global payment services center supporting over 60 countries in Asia, Europe, Middle East and Africa; Citigroup Information Technology and Infrastructure Philippines; and a satellite office of the Asia Pacific Banking Institute.

More Choices for Punters

Like a supermarket shelf that seems to proliferate with more and more brands to choose from, the financial market will soon offer us a surfeit of BPO companies in which to invest our retirement money.

Sutherland and Genpact, both from India, are among those queuing to sell shares to the public for the first time. They will join the battle for investors' capital, a fight already being fought by publicly traded companies PeopleSupport and eTelecare. As some in the Philippines like to quip, "the more, the many-er."

After the bumper debut by EXLService Holdings and WNS on Nasdaq and NYSE, respectively, Rochester, New York-headquartered third party BPO service provider Sutherland Global Services, is eyeing a US listing to raise close to $250 million. At the same time, it is also learnt that Genpact, one of the country’s largest BPO firms, is mulling a US listing through an IPO to raise over $600 million for the company and its promoters.

The company, previously part of US-based General Electric, is planning to offload about 15% equity through a public float on either Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange later this year, sources said. The company’s major shareholders — GE and US-based private equity giants Oakhill Capital and General Atlantic — are likely to sell part of their holding through this IPO, which could value the company at around $4 billion.

Genpact has appointed three US-based investment banks — Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citigroup — for the IPO and it may file the regulatory prospectus in the next few weeks, the sources said.

Lowering Costs for eCost

Another welcome mat to unfurl. PFSWeb , which had about 1,200 employees at the end of 2006, mostly in the U.S., opened up a customer contact center at the Tycoon Center Building in the Philippines' Ortigas business district. Capacity is 108 seats, according to TMCnet.

Their press release here:

PFSweb, Inc. (Nasdaq: PFSW) a global provider of integrated business process outsourcing (BPO) and web commerce solutions, today announced it is expanding
its Customer Care Services operations with a new 6,500 square foot customer call
center in the Philippines.
The new facility, located in downtown Manila, will initially house the customer service department for eCOST.com, PFSweb's wholly owned subsidiary. Additionally, certain support functions for eCOST.com, including an expanded web development team, will be relocated to the facility. On a case-by-case basis, PFSweb will evaluate offering this location's services to other PFSweb service fee clients. Cindy Almond, PFSweb's Vice President of Client Services, will be overseeing the Manila operations, and Mary Jennifer Nubla will be the facility's on-site General Manager.
"The Philippines offers exciting new opportunities for us to advance our growth strategy and expand our service capabilities, while maintaining high levels of customer service at a reduced cost," said Ms. Almond. "Many clients view our international presence as a key differentiator, enabling speed to market in expansion strategies. We consider this new facility to be yet another avenue to extend our market reach, reduce cost and deliver the highest level of service to our clients and their customers."

For context, PFSweb has a Canadian facility in Eastern Toronto with 22,000 square feet of space. It also has 480 seats at two facilities in Memphis, Tennessee and Plano, Texas (40,000 square feet) . Guess where most of its capacity (and jobs) will go once the Philippine facility proves itself.

Hither They Will Come

PeopleSupport's annual report has this to say as to why its profits rose in 2006:

Excluding the income tax benefits, the increase in net income was primarily attributable to growth in our customer management business, which enabled us to build revenues, and our move to the Philippines, which allowed us to reduce our operating costs, improve our margins and offer cost savings to our clients.

The point isn't that PeopleSupport will continue to be a profitable entity. It's that the relentless pursuit of it by companies in the U.S. makes it impossible for them to ignore the significant savings available, if only they locate in lower-cost countries like the Philippines. The hundreds of thousands of corporations seeking better bottom lines will continue to turn to companies such as PeopleSupport, eTelecare, Convergys, etc.

And when BPO companies sell customer-care services to a Fortune 500 company, and achieve 40% gross margins doing it, powerful incentives are created for even more people to enter the business. In that vortex of searching-for-savings will blossom the Philippines' sunrise industry.

Another BPO Stunner

Twice this month investors buying the BPO-growth story experienced heart attacks. In early March, PeopleSupport said it would not meet Wall Street expectations and disclosed that client Vonage would not renew a contract. Then on the last Friday of the month, ICT Group warned that earnings per share for the first quarter of 2007 would be a tenth of what they originally forecast.

Both stocks now sport charts showing steep cliffs where their prices plummted.

Here are the few paragraphs from ICT that prompted the tumble:

ICT GROUP, INC. (NASDAQ:ICTG), a leading global provider of customer management and business process outsourcing (BPO) solutions, today announced that the Company currently anticipates first quarter 2007 revenue of approximately $115 million and diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $0.02 to $0.04. This estimate compares with the Company's previous expectation of revenue in the
range of $116 to $118 million and earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.20 to $0.23.
The earnings revisions were primarily caused by capacity-related issues with two clients, both of whom are serviced exclusively from North American customer care centers.
John J. Brennan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "The volume of work associated with two of our clients exceeded what we had originally projected. As a result, ICT GROUP incurred significantly higher training and staffing costs as well as certain penalties that reduced revenue, all of which impacted profitability for the period."

While ICT Group maintained that 2007 revenue would exceed $500 million, Wall Street quickly abandoned the stock. One piece of bad news always elicits the Cockroach Theory -- you never find just one cockroach in your kitchen.

40 Million Jobs Up for Grabs

Alan Blinder, Princeton economics professor and former vice-chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, has provided updated estimates of how many of the 140 million jobs in the world's largest economy could be offshored.

Hold your chair -- his new estimate is that between 30-40 million jobs (22-29 percent) could move outside of the country, versus about 1 percent of U.S. jobs today. Blinder is not saying that that many jobs will go to poorer countries; the actual figure will for sure be lower. But it shows the potential bonanza awaiting developing countries, and the massive disruption that could hit the American labor force.

In a recent paper (Blinder, 2006), I argued that the migration of service sector jobs from the United States and other rich countries to other (mostly poorer) nations, while a minor phenomenon to date, is likely to become a major one in the coming decades—perhaps extensive enough to constitute a “new industrial revolution.” While the movement of manufacturing jobs abroad is a decades-old story, the phenomenon of service sector offshoring is a relatively new wrinkle that has been enabled by two majordevelopments of fairly recent vintage: stunning advances in computerized telecommunications technology (e.g., the Internet), and the entry of several “new” countries (principally India and China) into the global economy since the 1990s, and especially in this decade.

We've already seen what has happened in China, which has become the workshop of the world because its manufacturing costs are a fraction of those in the U.S. or Europe. In the process whole industries have been hollowed out.

Blinder points out in an earlier paper that the potential for American service jobs moving abroad is greater. The same cost differential that drove manufacturers to locate in China will drive service companies to locate in developing Asia; just look at this example: U.S. minimum wage of US$5.15 an hour is what a worker in the Philippines earns in a day. In other words, the migration of service jobs out of the U.S. to the rest of the world is just beginning.

But I believe that service-sector offshoring will eventually exceed manufacturing-sector offshoring by a hefty margin—for three main reasons. The first is simple arithmetic: There are vastly more service jobs than manufacturing jobs in the United States (and in other rich countries). Second, the technological advances that have made service-sector offshoring possible will continue and accelerate, so the range of services that can be moved offshore will increase ineluctably. Third, the number of, e.g., Indian and Chinese workers capableof performing service jobs offshore seems certain to grow, perhaps exponentially.

The scarier part for Americans is this: Binder has argued in this paper that education will not be the bullwark against a job going to a lower-cost place.

For example, it is easy to offshore working in a call center, typing transcripts, writing computer code, and reading X-rays. The first two require little education; the last two require quite a lot. On the other hand, it is either impossible or very difficult to offshore janitorial services, working in a fast-food restaurant, college teaching, and open-heart surgery. Again, the first two occupations require little or no education, while the last two require a great deal. There seems to be little or no correlation between educational requirements (the old concern) and how “offshorable” jobs are (the new one).