BPO Slowdown

The red-hot BPO industry is declaring that 2009 will be a slower growth year after the torrid expansion in the past few years. The blame is put not just on the global recession but the rising protectionist sentiment in the U.S., the Philippines' largest market.

Half-full-glass analysts will tell you this is the welcome pause that refreshes. No industry can sustain big jumps in production without bumping up against constraints. And for the longest time, the constraint has not been external demand. The problem has been mostly internal: the country's ability to provide labor. Or rather, we should say labor is not a problem, as any recruiting agency will tell you; it's the limited supply of labor with the right skills that has limited growth.

Now that external demand is slackening, the industry can turn more attention to those internal problems, those what managers will call "variables we can control." There's nothing we can do to influence the U.S. recession; there's everything we can do to make sure Philippine schools are turning out qualified graduates, training seminars are truly training employees, and programs to upgrade technical skills are implemented.

CICT Commissioner Monchito Ibrahim said that despite the setback, the industry is still expecting 30-percent growth this year to some $8 billion, and plans to increase the number of new jobs by a fifth or 75,000 jobs. He said the BPO industry ended 2008 with 372,000 jobs.

The revenue projection was taken from the Business Processing Association of the Philippines (Bpap) Roadmap 2010, a three-year plan that aims to double the country’s worldwide market share and achieve $13 billion in revenues, as well as provide direct employment to 1 million people.

Ibrahim said the slowdown was due to a number of factors, including the global financial crisis which has hurt the US, the country’s only major partner in the BPO industry. The lack of workers with necessary skills was also a key constraint.

Changing Meralco's Leadership

It's one of the biggest business stories of the year. Family of the nation's largest power distributor gives up controlling stake to nation's largest telecommunications company. Tectonic shifts in the Philippines' corporate firmament of this magnitude happen once in a generation.

What does the main daily reduce it to? A family squabble.

Despite statements that all is well and that the family is still as tight-knit as ever, the Lopez family saga over the sale of most of the family’s shares in power distributor Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) to the Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT) group continues.

For the first time, Mike Lopez, son of Meralco chairman and chief executive Manuel Lopez, lashed back at people who say his father had known about the decision to sell down the family’s Meralco stake from day one.

“We were not privy at all to the negotiations from day one. Saying that we were, is a grave injustice to my dad’s name,” he told the Philippine Daily Inquirer in a telephone interview Wednesday.

Truth and Xinhua

Every so often, the show falters. An assistant presses the wrong button, and we get a glimpse of the reality behind the curtain.

BEIJING, Sept. 25 (UPI) -- China's state-run news agency made a gaffe Thursday when it published an "in space" conversation among the Chinese astronauts even before they left Earth.

Xinhua news agency posted the story on its Web site well before the launch of the Shenzhou VII space craft, The Times of London reported.

The story, which was headlined "Sleepless Night on the Pacific, Sidelights on the Observation and Control of the 30th Lap of the Shenzhou 7 Spaceship," was removed from the Xinhua Web site and was described as a technical error.

Retiring the PSPT Ticker

So People Support, after seeing its stock drop to $8 in July, agreed to be bought by Aegis BPO, for $12.25 a share. The $250 million transaction is supposed to close this October, when the Philippine-based company becomes another part of India's sprawling Essar Group, which is into such businesses as steel, oil, and mobile phones.

Whatever happened to creating "shareholder value" when PSPT rejected the $15 per share offer of IPVG?

ACt 2: PeopleSupport

The dance has entered its next phase. After PeopleSupport (PSPT) rejected a bid by IPVG for $15 a share, it is now on the receiving end of a revised $17 all-cash counter offer. PSPT can no longer treat this bid in the same way it treated the first -- a brush off with a curt letter.

A copy of the IPVG (IP) letter to Mr. Rosenzweig available here.

It is unfortunate that the Board of Directors of the Company has not engaged us in serious discussions despite repeated attempts to have confidential dialogues regarding our proposal. We are also disappointed that the directors do not see the merit of our proposal despite the fact that it is directly beneficial to the shareholders of the Company.

However, upon careful deliberation of the recent initiatives, revised earnings guidance, and new strategic planning the Company announced in its statement of December 12, 2007, we are prepared to make a revised proposal to acquire the Company at a purchase price of $17.00/share. This new proposal represents approximately 34.81% premium to the Company’s 60-day weighted average closing price of $12.61/share including the close of market yesterday, January 10, 2008.

As the major shareholder of PSPT, much rests on how Chairman & CEO Lance Rosenzweig wants to finish this. If he is truly ready to give up PSPT, then he merely needs to extract as much cash as possible, and the best way to maximize the final price is to get another dance partner.

If he wants to hang on, he'll need to bring lots more ammunition vs IPVG, rather than just PowerPoints and press releases about how rosy the picture is for PSPT remaining an independent company. Many PSPT shareholders with lawyers on speed dial won't hesitate to sue if he gives up this opportunity to cash out. No need to bet what Galleon (24% owners of PSPT) are advising Lance to do.

It's been more than a month since IPVG made its first unsolicited offer, ample time for any other interested party to emerge from the woodworks. Our call: we are coming close to a final price.

Getting to 20% With Ayala

As eTelecare's (ETEL) shares tumbled, the Philippines' oldest conglomerate and owner of the country's biggest bank and biggest real-estate company made good on its intentions to boost its stake.

According to information reported by Ayala Corp. to US regulators, the conglomerate now owns 6.39 million ETEL shares, or 22.22% of the BPO. Ayala first bought into ETEL in June 2006, when press reports said it paid about 800 million pesos for 11% of the company, using LiveIt Solutions Inc. as its investment vehicle.

The shares may have just been transferred from one Ayala pocket to another. Check out Ayala Corp.'s US SEC filing. There are more layers in this than a wedding cake: Ayala wholly owns Azalea International Venture Partners Ltd., which wholly owns LiveIt Investments Ltd., which in turn wholly owns Newbridge International Investment Ltd. Newbridge, after all, was an original investor in eTelecare. In an early November filing, Ayala said additional investments in eTelecare were for "investment purposes."

Ayala Corporation currently intends, depending on market and other conditions, and in its sole discretion, to consider acquiring additional Shares of the Issuer and thereby increase its total beneficial ownership interest to 20% of total outstanding Shares on a fully diluted basis (or approximately 22% of the Issuer’s total current outstanding Shares on an undiluted basis), in order, among other things, to allow Ayala Corporation to account for its Shares under the equity method of accounting.

Even then, it's usually a good sign when a major shareholder puts it on record that it is the shareholder on record, instead of burying it in an offshore vehicle domiciled in some balmy tax haven. After all, Ayala will not want to get above the 20% threshold if it's expecting poor performance from ETEL going forward.

People Say The Price Isn't Right

On the same day that it rejected a cash bid from IPVG Corp. to buy the company for $15 a share, PeopleSupport came out with a bullish forecast, saying it would generate more revenue and earnings than analysts had expected.

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- PeopleSupport Inc., an offshore business process outsourcing provider, said Wednesday it expects its fiscal 2008 profit to beat Wall Street's expectations. The company forecast income between 65 cents and 81 cents per share in 2008, with revenue of $180 million to $190 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial predict earnings of 57 cents per share on revenue of $170.8 million.

Not all the pieces of the unfolding drama are visible on the board. The unsolicited IPVG bid, in the parlance of bankers, put PSPT "into play." Now the usual drill in this scenario is to reject the first buyout offer and holdout for more; from the shadows other bidders will emerge. You can be sure that teams from other BPOs are now crunching numbers with their favorite investment bankers to see if they should battle for PSPT and top IPVG's $15/share offer.

In the PSPT's press release, PSPT quoted its independent director Frank Perna as saying, “We have carefully reviewed the proposal and believe it to be inadequate and not to merit further attention. We have also reviewed the strategic plans in place for the Company and believe that the implementation of those plans is the best way to enhance shareholder value at this time."

The translation: we have a price at which we will sell.

Blackstone Flag to Fly in Philippines

A Reuters news story in the NYTimes website says Blackstone Group has bought Intelenet Global Services of India, teaming up with its management in an 80-20 venture. The buyout price was in the region of $200 million.

This marks the first foray in the industry for Blackstone. And such big boys with deep pockets don't usually stop at one deal. Rollup strategy, anyone?

The British bank Barclays and an Indian mortgage firm, the Housing Development Finance Corporation, said separately that they each were selling their holdings in Intelenet, without disclosing the price.

Intelenet plans to expand its operations in Britain and begin services out of the Philippines and Mauritius, said its chief executive, Susir Kumar.

Manila's Construction Boom

There was a time when property developers had to rely on a "build it, and they will come" strategy. Now the world has turned -- all the big boys with capital and spare land are being approached by BPOs, i.e. "we have come, please build it." The larger BPOs are ready, willing, and eager to take up entire buildings and sign long-term leases in their rush to expand. Which goes to show that the constraint for the Philippine economy's growth engine isn't the ability to sell its services abroad. BPOs with U.S.-facing businesses are so confident of demand that they are snapping up any sizeable office space that comes onto the market. What's holding back the boom are domestic capacity constraints, be it buildings with the right cabling, or qualified managers to manage the pell-mell growth. But have faith -- the capitalist system is responding to remove those constraints . . .

SM Investments Corporation, one of the Philippines’ largest conglomerates, broke ground on its latest built-to-suit project in Makati City.
The firm disclosed to the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) yesterday that the project, to be called SM Makati Cybezone, is a 4- storey building at Sen. Gil Puyat Avenue, due for completion in Q2 2008. Located at the heart of the Metro’s business district, SM Makati Cyberzone will have a gross floor area of 18,700 square meters and will be occupied by eTelecare Global Solutions, Inc.
"With the growing presence of the BPO industry comes also the growing need for spaces and integrated office facilities," said SMIC vice chairman Henry Sy, Jr.
He added that "the SM Group is more than prepared to answer those needs, as we have aligned with the market demands of this growing industry to provide well-planned and integrated office facilities to BPOs and Contact Centers in strategic locations.". . . .SMIC also broke ground for its second business process outsourcing (BPO) building for PeopleSupport at the SM Baguio Cyberzone recently.

Losing Half

If you drive around two of the Philippines' biggest metropolitan areas -- Manila and Cebu -- the burgeoning presence of the call-center industry readily makes itself apparent. Recruitment posters plaster anyplace that might harbor a budding customer service representatives and BPOs use billboards to build their brand as the recruiting war intensifies.

I recently talked to an employee of a U.S.-based call center. She is only a year out of college. Like many of her generation, she started her career with a local call center, earning her chops before transferring, in less than six months, to the American company where she almost doubled her pay.

Here's the shocker: in her training batch of 25 employees, in less than six months, more than half are no longer working for the company. Those fired were let go for frequent absences or committing too many mistakes. The voluntary resignees cited the growing workload and the stresses of the reversed lifestyle (working when the rest of the country is asleep) as the factors in giving up the good pay.

If you're an investor in any of the BPOs, make sure you pay rapt attention to their attrition rate.

Media KPO

Who will be the first in the Philippines to provide outsourcing for America's television industry? According to televisionpoint.com, which tracks the Indian TV industry, Infosys is about to tie up with India's TV18 group to do production work and provide the technology backbone to make it easier to get the digital content we all crave.

The Philippine broadcast industry has the same untapped capabilities -- it's a matter of marrying it with someone who will have enough credibility among TV titans in the U.S. so that those services will be bought.

Sources said the TV18 group was in advanced talks with Infosys BPO and was in the process of finalising the management team that would head this venture. The size of the deal is unavailable, but according to company sources, the deal will involve use of the TV18 brand name and the technology and delivery capabilities of Infosys BPO. This will include rolling out online initiatives and creating technology platforms for high-definition content, digital content and projects that involve editing media-related content.

According to infotech analysts, Infosys BPO is increasingly focusing on getting more knowledge process outsourcing work. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the global media-entertainment industry is estimated at $1.3 trillion (India's GDP in the region of $800 billion) is and is expected to grow to $1,7 trillion by the end of 2009. Infosys is India's second largest infotech software services exporter. TV18, with interests in television and Internet business, runs four television channels including news and entertainment and about a dozen Internet portals spanning technology to travel.

Lawson's Hiring

Ramp up. The phrase is insufficient to capture what some hiring managers face when they go from 100 to 900 employees in less than two years. Here's one company that's a microcosm of what's going on in the Philippines:

Lawson Philippine Solutions & Services Center (PSSC) Inc. last year opened its office in Fort Bonifacio Global City with less than a hundred employees. [Lawson Vice President James] Sanderson said they would be spending $5 million in payroll for their targeted 400 employees this year. [Lawson Philippines President John] Mulchrone said they have upped that number to 900 by May next year. Lawson currently employs 350 Filipino software engineers, quality engineers, and business process outsourcing staff for internal support.

In choosing between the Philippines and India, Lawson clearly prefers a nation of 90 million versus a sub-continent of 1 billion:

[Lawson's decision] to transfer operations in the Philippines is based on results of their investigation on the country’s cost advantage. Aside from tax incentives, Lawson said the “an intelligent workforce with high energy and good work ethics” can easily be tapped in the Philippines.

Mulchrone said the firm’s experience in India has much larger costs compared to the Philippines. “So for the past five years, we began transitioning our operations from India to the Philippines,” he said.

Shortage

Is there a global labor shortage? Some think so. But mention that at any of the recruitment agencies in Manila, where men and women line up in the hopes of landing that overseas job, and you would be laughed at. Perhaps the shortage has to do with qualified skilled workers. You may know how to balance a balance sheet or troubleshoot a troubled network, but if you can't speak English, you can't join the BPO workforce.

At first, the flood of three billion new workers into the global marketplace for labor was a boon to employers across the globe. But cost cutting strategies, like offshoring and outsourcing work to low-wage countries, are running out of gas far sooner than many expected.
The salaries of IT workers from Central Europe to India are rising by double-digits every year. In the past five years, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), SAP (SAP), and even Morgan Stanley (MS) have set up shop in former Communist countries of Eastern Europe. There, a deep pool of highly qualified math and science graduates were supposed to be willing to work for a third of that paid their Western counterparts.
Yet today, IT directors in Poland can cost companies more than $100,000 a year. That approaches Silicon Valley levels. And the number of highly qualified workers is surprisingly low. Multinationals have reacted swiftly, moving operations to ever lower-cost centers. Nokia, which already employs nearly 5,000 people in Hungary, recently announced that it is building a new handset factory in Romania.
This is all rather unexpected. Five years ago companies never thought they would have to worry about human resources. China and India were supposed to have seemingly inexhaustible pools of cheap labor. Yet today, the #1 challenge for multinationals setting up operations abroad is finding and keeping good workers.

The Global Labor Shortage: "The Saudi Arabia of Outsourcing"
India accounts for 65% of all IT work performed offshore. This is largely thanks to its seemingly limitless supply of low-cost engineers and other professionals. Yet, not all is as it seems. India produces 400,000 engineering graduates a year (five times as many as the United States) and a stunning 2.5 million university graduates overall. Yet only about a quarter of India's college graduates are up to snuff. The odds at top Indian companies are even worse. Some 1.3 million people applied to tech-services giant Infosys last year. Fewer than 2% of those were employable.
Graduates of non-elite schools suffer from weak English skills. The quality of faculty and courses is sub-par. In-house training programs for new recruits at top Indian IT services firms such as Infosys (INFY), Genpact, and Tata Consultancy Services fill some of the gaps. But by 2010, India will have a shortfall of 150,000 IT engineers and 350,000 business-process staff.

C'mon, Aussie, C'mon

It's somewhat hilarious what some people will say as they face stiff competition for business. Some resort to FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) attacks. Australia's Sunday Telegraph writes about medical records for transcription being sent to India, Pakistan and the Philippines, where costs are half those in Aussie Land.

Lyndie Arkell, chief executive of the wholly Australian transcription service OzeScribe, described the quality of overseas transcriptions as "absolutely terrible".

"There is a large industry sending work to India because there are doctors who want cheaper transcriptions," she said.

"But they are violating privacy laws and disrespecting their patients' privacy. I don't think patients go to their doctors thinking their records are going to end up in India."

Mistakes and mix-ups in medical terminology are common among overseas transcribers who cannot understand Australian accents, she warned.

Examples included confusion between "hypo" and "hyper" and "perineum" and "peritoneum".

And so mate, only Aussies can understand bloody Aussie accents. No Sanjit or Rajiv or Jose could ever hope to understand the inscrutable Down Under Droll. Crikey.

Using Your Accent With Accenture

Accenture is opening its seventh office in the Philippines in a massive expansion that will see capacity jump by about 50%, and employment by 36%, according to Philippine press reports. It's all good for those with the proper accents to man the call centers or the skills to do global accounting and programming, not to mention the ability to be productive in a time zone not of your own.

Note to managers: if your lease on office space with excellent telecommunications facilities is expiring soon, make sure you renew and lock in your rates. Landlords are seeing strong demand for prime space.

All Headline News gives us the Accenture capacity figure:

Accenture currently operates seven facilities in the Philippines, with a total of more than 10,000 contact center seats. Its latest and biggest facility is housed at the Robinsons Cybergate Tower II in Mandaluyong City, which has 5,000 contact center seats. Accenture is looking to end its fiscal year with a total of 15,000 seats, including the planned Cebu center, which will initially house 500 seats but will be ramped gradually.

While Inquirer says this about its headcount:

The company expects to have a total of around 15,000 employees in the country by the end of its current fiscal year in August.

Basilio Rueda, senior managing director of Accenture's Global Delivery Network, said that in the Philippines, call center operations exhibit the biggest growth in terms of employee count. In terms of revenue, application development contributes the highest at about 40 percent.

Here's the rub. If you assume a generous yield of one successful hire for every 10 applicants interviewed, that means Accenture has to churn through 40,000 people to get its workforce up from the current 11,000 -- by August.

One Citi's Loss is Another's Gain

Citibank, the financial colossus with 327,000 employees scattered around the world, says it will eliminate 17,000 jobs and move 9,500 to lower-cost countries.

Citibank's Philippine operations (4,100 employees) already does the accounting backroom for the bank titan's Asian operations. What will Manila gain at the expense of New York? Here's how many Citibank employees in the Big Apple will get pink slips, according to the NYTimes:

Some of the biggest body blows in the cost-cutting effort will be felt in New York, where Citigroup is the largest private employer. About 1,600 jobs will be eliminated in the city, where Citigroup has 27,000 employees and its headquarters.

An additional 200 jobs will be lost in New York State, about 75 jobs will be cut in Connecticut, and a handful will be shed in New Jersey. The first pink slips have already been handed out.

Over all, roughly 8 percent of Citigroup’s 327,000 workers worldwide, from entry-level consumer bankers to senior executives in the investment bank, will be affected.

This from Citibank Philippines:

Citigroup Business Process Solutions provides BPO, Call Center and other IT and IT-enabled services to various Citigroup consumer group operations around the region supporting 3 key domains: Citiphone Banking, Credit Operations and Transaction Services.

In addition, three regional operations are located in the Philippines: Citigroup Business Services, the global financial and management reporting center and global payment services center supporting over 60 countries in Asia, Europe, Middle East and Africa; Citigroup Information Technology and Infrastructure Philippines; and a satellite office of the Asia Pacific Banking Institute.

Singapore vs Philippines

Sometimes, you can compare the housing markets and the level of sophistication of the banking industry by the products they offer.

If you are a Singapore office worker, you can borrow for a home loan, and you'll know what the interest rate will be for two years. Beyond that, you wouldn't know for certain, because the loan becomes variable. If you are an office worker in the Philippines, you could fix the interest rates that you will pay on your home loan for the next 25 years.

In Singapore, OCBC offers the following package fixed-rate loan:

Year 1 3.75% p.a. (fixed)
Year 2 4.00% p.a. (fixed)
Thereafter VALUE RATE Less 0.75% (variable)


In Philippines, BDO offers these rates:

9.00% fixed for 1 year
9.25% fixed for 2 years
9.75% fixed for 3 years
9.95% fixed for 4 to 5 years
11.00% fixed for 10 years
11.50% fixed for 15 and 25 years

Of course, anyone would rather borrow at 3.75% than at 11%. But having a First World economy does not always mean you are ahead of everyone.