Boom

The first quarter GDP figures for the Philippine economy came in last week. And as the Philippines does every so often, the figures surprised everyone: GDP 6.9 percent higher in the first quarter versus the same period a year before. It was the fastest growth in 17 years, and no professional economist or business forecaster saw it coming. This is a country that some refer to as the "Sick Man of Asia"; most people you talk to believe in keeping a portion of their savings in dollars "in case there's a devaluation." Expectations are still low; just like any brand it will take awhile for "Philippines" to become synonymous with rapid growth. Well, with an economic engine revved up by BPOs expanding faster than you can say "English language proficiency," expect several more quarters of upside.

While the economists may have to ratchet up their forecasts, anyone on the ground can tell you that deals are getting done. The stock market is ahead of things, moving to record highs. As we've argued in this blog, this is a multi-year economic boom. Banks are shaking off their trepidation at lending. Capital is flowing into the economy. It's nowhere near a China frenzy: we are simply at the end of the beginning of a powerful expansion wave.